Royals Prospect Profile: Trevor Werner

Trevor Werner put on a show at low-A in 2023. Was it a fluke or a sign of greater things to come?

The Kansas City Royals found a gem in the later rounds of the 2019 draft when they took Vinnie Pasquantino in the 11th round.

They may have found another in 2023.

The Royals took Trevor Werner with their 7th round pick in the 2023 draft, and before the first leaf turned, Werner was dropping bombs all over the Carolina League. When the sun set on his professional debut, he put up an incredible .354/.459/.699 slash line in A ball with a 15.6% BB rate and a 23% SO rate. Those are video game numbers for anyone, let alone a 7th round pick who hit all of .251 in his final year at Texas A&M.

So, what’s the deal with Werner? Is he for real? Was this a fluke? Was he just taking the lunch money off some young, A-ball pitchers? Maybe.

But here are a couple reasons Werner might be for real.

Werner’s approach is very good

A hitter’s approach is often determined by other aspects of their profile. Hitters with good hit tools often show more aggression, as their additional plate coverage allows for more contact. Hitters expected to put up good power numbers often develop a more patient approach to take advantage of pitches in the heart of the plate.

Werner works from a very patient approach that rarely gets too aggressive and allows him to take advantage of hitter’s counts. In most his plate appearances, he is conservative early in counts, forcing the pitcher to be in his favored hitting zone or he won’t swing. Consequently, he gets into a lot of hitters counts (2-0, 3-0, 3-1), which set him up to turn loose when pitchers have to come into his zone.

In the at bat above, you can see Werner take the first pitch which is mistakenly called a strike. But instead of getting overly aggressive 0-1, he remains patient. The 0-1 pitch is called a ball (though it’s probably a strike … MiLB umpires aren’t great, folks); that gets Werner back to even and he eventually works the count to 3-1. He takes a healthy cut on 3-1 and fouls a ball off, and then mashes a 3-2 fastball over the wall. That’s a professional plate appearance if I’ve ever seen one.

Occasionally, he’ll keep pitchers off balance by trying to ambush a first pitch fastball, but for the most part, he’s very tight with the strike zone early in counts, which works to his advantage.

He also seems to have really good pitch recognition, which allows him to identify breaking pitches working out of the zone away.

Werner has 60-grade power to all fields

Yes, if you look at his batted ball data, it clearly shows that he’s a pull hitter (he pulled 50.6% of balls he put in play in low-A last year), but I’ve seen the tape. Werner hits the ball plenty hard to the opposite field, as well, and he’s capable of looking the other way when pitchers want to work him outside.

In A ball, he didn’t need to work the opposite field much because his advanced approach helped him get middle-in pitches to feast on and low-A pitchers struggle to consistently locate on the outer third.

But as the video above shows, he’s definitely capable to driving balls to the opposite field with good exit velocities. He’s particularly adept at waiting on pitches when he has two strikes and pushing them through the right side; these aren’t always hit hard, but they do indicate that he has good bat control and an excellent understanding of situational hitting.

What about his defense?

Defensively, Werner was not nearly as successful in 2023. In 41 chances at third base, he had eight errors. He has the athleticism to stick at 3B and more than enough arm, but he needs to get more consistent fielding and throwing. His actions look smooth enough, but his hands aren’t the surest, and he’s been a little wild throwing the ball to first.

If he doesn’t clean up the defensive miscues, he may end up transitioning to first base where the offensive burden will be higher.

What does the future hold?

Werner should probably start 2024 in A+ so we’ll get to see if his advanced approach and significant power play against slightly better stuff. But the real test will come when he’s promoted to AA. That’s when he’ll see a lot of pitchers who can locate a fastball on the outer third. That’s when he’ll see more consistent breaking stuff that he may not be able to identify so quickly.

Werner’s still a long shot to become an every day MLB player, but his performance at the plate in 2023 demands attention. And there’s plenty to indicate that it wasn’t just a fluke. If he can sustain that level of success, the Royals will have another middle-of-the-order, late-round gem to pair with Pasquantino.